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Domestic auto retail sales fell 23.6% y/y in August, the ninth consecutive month of double-digit declines (CPCA). Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales fell to 540,000 units, down ~40% y/y. NEV sales fell 9.5% y/y to 1,005,000 units. Despite the decline, this was the second-best monthly sa... Username Password Remember Me Forgot Password
The property downturn showed no signs of easing in August. Per stats bureau (NBS) data published on September 15, new real estate investment fell 25.5% y/y in August. That's marginally better than July’s 27.4% drop, but worse than the 18% decline recorded in H1. Construction activity fell harder s...
August's economic data tells a familiar story: Supply-side strength continues to mask deep weakness in domestic demand and investment. We have three main observations from the macro data released by the stats bureau (NBS) on September 15. First, industrial output accelerated sharply. Industrial val...
The most important upcoming developments for policy and politics in China over the next month key developments foreign affairs Xi Jinping’s US visit (September 23-25) USD 60 billion in China-US tariff rate cuts (around September 24) Maroš Šefčovič’s China visit (early October) tech China-US AI sa...
Per central bank (PBoC) data released September 14, outstanding total social financing (TSF) expanded 7.2% y/y in August – its slowest ever pace – down from 7.4% in July. Growth was driven by bond issuance. Net new issuance of government bonds was RMB 1.01 trillion, down 26.3% from a year...
China exported 888,000 passenger vehicles in August, down 3.3% from last month’s record, but still up a mighty 77.8% y/y. NEVs continued to dominate: NEV shipments hit 518,000 units, accounting for 58.4% of exports. The internal combustion engine (ICE) segment also performed well, with exports grow...
Chinese courts now have a formal playbook for winding down property developers. On September 7, the Supreme People’s Court (SPC) issued judicial guidance for courts handling developer bankruptcy cases. The guidance is strikingly granular, covering the practical mechanics of case handling, project c...
Central regulators have reportedly imposed a temporary freeze on construction of new EV and energy storage battery manufacturing projects through the end of 2026, as they review which projects should qualify for approval (Caixin). Projects that received environmental impact and energy consumption a...
China and India are working toward a new Modi…uhh…modus vivendi. On September 12, Xi Jinping met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in New Delhi. Some context: This is Xi's first visit to India in seven years and comes amid a thaw in Sino-Indian relations. ...
Beijing wants Chinese technology to play a central role in the rise of the Global South. Xi Jinping proposed a BRICS initiative on "AI-empowered new industrialization" in his opening speech at the BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12 (People's Daily). He outlined what that might involve in a se...
Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research To read this research report as a PDF, click here. Executive summary Beijing has promised to support the economy with "counter-cyclical adjustments" to its monetary policy – but we are confident this won’t include rate cuts. This is because the People’...
Everyone keeps calling the US-China AI competition a race. But Eric Olander, co-founder of the China Global South Project, says that framing is wrong – because a race implies a finish line, and this competition doesn't have one. Eric’s view is that Chinese AI companies aren't necessarily looking to...
Joe Peissel, Lead Macroeconomist Investment is supposed to be what props up China's economy when growth slows – but not this year. Fixed asset investment (FAI) has declined across all three of its main components – manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate – and it's set to keep dragging on gr...
Joe Peissel, Lead Macroeconomist, Wenye Sun, Senior Analyst, and David Zhang, Senior Analyst To view this report as a PDF, click here. Introduction Investment has long been a growth driver of the Chinese economy, and a key lever to pull on when the economy slows. But not this year. Throughout 2026,...
The way Chinese households buy gold is changing – and it tells us something about the state of consumer confidence. ICYMI: A few weeks back we reported on China's soaring gold imports, which hit 820 tons in H1 2026 – up 81% y/y. Retail purchases account for the majority of this demand, but the compo...
